Today's picks

Model probability vs. market price on every pick. Each one posts about 30 minutes before its game, so lines are fresh, and is graded on the public ledger.

Sports we covernflcfbmlbmlswnba

Informational only, not financial advice. Model probabilities are estimates; markets move after publication. 21+.

What is on this page

Every prediction our models produce for the day, published before the game starts and left where it is afterwards. Each card shows the selection, the line we found at the softest number available, the model's own probability next to the market's, and the game start in your local time. Results are graded from the final score and written to a public record.

Slates vary. Baseball runs daily through the summer, football is weekly and seasonal, and on a quiet day there may be nothing that clears the bar. A day with no picks is a real answer rather than a gap, and we would rather show it than pad the page.

Coverage by sport

How a pick is published and settled

  1. The model runs first. It projects the game from team and player inputs, then compares its own number with the market. Only a large enough gap produces a pick.
  2. We shop the number. The line recorded is the softest one available across the books we read, because the number you get is part of whether a call is worth making.
  3. It publishes before the start. Typically about 30 minutes ahead. Once published it is sealed with a hash, so it cannot be edited or quietly removed later.
  4. The final score settles it. Win, loss or push is graded from the official result and appended to the record in the same size type either way.

The full history lives on the ledger, where each entry stores the hash of the one before it so the order cannot be rewritten. If you want the method rather than the record, how it works walks through it, and verified picks explains how to check the claims yourself.