The Model Lab, explained
The lab hands members the keys to the same models behind the ledger. Pick a game, change the situation, and watch the projection move.
What you can change
Take a starter out and see what the projection does. In the NBA and WNBA you sit any player on the roster; in MLB you swap the starting pitcher; in the NFL you take out the quarterback or a starter at another position. For college football the lab now lists each team's quarterback, lead back and top receiver with what is known about them, and a player reported out starts the scenario that way.
For outdoor NFL games the lab reads the forecast at the stadium and lets you move the wind and rain yourself. College football carries a rain setting. A roofed stadium says so, and weather does not apply.
Strengthen or weaken the home advantage, from a neutral site to double the usual edge, and decide how much a road team pays for the time zones it crossed.
Each model weighs a few categories of evidence. Turn one up or down in coarse steps and watch how much the projection depends on it.
What you see
The house model first.For every game on the slate the lab shows the model's own projection: the scoring range for each side and how the win chances split. That costs nothing and uses none of your daily simulations.
Then your scenario beside it. Sit a player, change the weather, lean on the home edge, and the lab runs the model again with your changes and lays the two projections side by side, with a line for each change it applied.
Never a line. The lab shows how far a scenario moves the model, not a number to take. The calls the desk actually makes are on the picks page, posted before the game and settled on the public ledger.
Questions
Yes. It comes with a free account. Each day you get a small number of your own simulations; the house model for every game on the slate is shown without using one.
NFL, college football (FBS and FCS), MLB, NBA, WNBA and MLS. Each sport runs the same model that produces the picks on the ledger, with the levers that make sense for that sport.
No. It shows the model's projection for the game and how far your scenario moves it. The picks live on the picks page and the ledger; the lab is for understanding the model, not for copying its calls.
Both, and the lab says which. NFL and NBA player effects are measured against years of games. College football player effects are estimates, because college has no injury history to measure against, and the page labels them so.
Informational only, not financial advice. Projections are estimates and markets move after publication. 21+.