NRFI & YRFI Picks
Free first-inning run picks — the No-Run-First-Inning / Yes-Run-First-Inning prop, backed by a model calibrated on thousands of games. Published before first pitch, settled on a public, verifiable ledger.
Recent first-inning results
Graded on the public ledger.
Fresh first-inning results post here after each day's games settle.
What is NRFI (and YRFI)?
NRFI — No Run First Inning — is a bet that neither team scores in the 1st inning. YRFI — Yes Run First Inning— is the opposite: it wins the moment any run crosses in the 1st. It's become one of the most popular MLB prop bets because it's simple, it settles in about 20 minutes, and it's driven almost entirely by the two starting pitchers and the top of each lineup — a cleaner, more modelable question than a full-game result.
How our first-inning model works
We estimate the probability of a first-inning run from starting-pitcher form and first-inning tendencies, the quality of the hitters due up at the top of the order, and park and weather, then compare that probability to the live market price on the NRFI/YRFI market. Our validated live edge is on cheap YRFI spots — games where a run in the 1st is more likely than the market's price implies. When the expected value clears our bar, we post the pick, with the model's number shown. When it doesn't, we pass.
Every first-inning pick, on the record
NRFI/YRFI is exactly the kind of high-volume prop where dishonest services cherry-pick winners. We can't: every first-inning pick is hashed to a public ledger before first pitch and settled in the open. The full first-inning record above is pulled straight from that immutable chain — wins and losses, nothing hidden.
NRFI picks FAQ
What does NRFI mean?
NRFI stands for 'No Run First Inning' — a bet that neither team scores in the top or bottom of the 1st inning. Its opposite, YRFI ('Yes Run First Inning'), wins if any run is scored in the 1st. It's one of the most popular MLB prop bets because it settles fast and depends heavily on the starting pitchers.
Do you pick NRFI or YRFI?
Both sides are on the board every day, but our model's validated live edge is currently on YRFI (yes-run) spots — cheap 'yes' prices where the model sees a higher first-inning scoring chance than the market prices in. We publish the side the model favors, with the probability shown.
Are your first-inning picks free?
Yes — free during our beta, with full model numbers. Our settled first-inning record is public on the ledger for anyone to verify.
When are NRFI/YRFI picks posted?
Each first-inning pick is published shortly before first pitch, once the confirmed starting pitchers and fresh prices are in, and timestamped to our public ledger before the market locks.
How do you know if a first-inning pick is good value?
Our model estimates the probability a run scores in the 1st from starting-pitcher form, lineup quality at the top of the order, park and weather, then compares it to the market price. We only post a pick when the expected value clears our threshold — no edge, no play.
Join the free beta for daily NRFI/YRFI picks with full model numbers and a public record you can check yourself.
Informational only — not betting advice. Model probabilities are estimates, not predictions of outcomes. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.