MLB Picks & Predictions
Model-driven MLB picks, posted on game day before first pitch and graded on a public, hash-chained ledger. The model's number sits beside the market's, so you can see why a pick was made.
Recent results
Graded in public, wins and losses alike.
MLB results post here as each game settles.
What we publish for MLB
Baseball picks are mostly moneylines: which team wins the game. Each pick shows the team, the game time and the model's win probability next to the probability the market's price implies, and it goes on the public ledger the moment it is published.
Baseball is a daily sport with a long season, but most days most games get no pick. The model has to see a clear gap between its own number and the market's before anything is published, and many days that gap is not there.
The postseason is a different game from the regular season: rotations shorten and the best arms pitch more often. We study playoff games on their own rather than assuming the regular season carries over, and the playoff results sit on the same public record.
How the baseball model works
The model builds each game from the starting pitchers, the lineups, the bullpens, the park and the weather, then turns that into a win probability for each side. That probability is compared with the price the market is offering, and a pick is made only when the two disagree by enough to matter.
Everything was tested on several seasons of real historical prices, graded season by season with the bad years in view, and checked on seasons the model was never tuned on. Most ideas we tried did not survive that, and they are not on the ledger.
How to read an MLB pick
Each MLB card shows the team picked, the start time in your own time zone, and two percentages: the model's chance that the team wins, and the chance the market's price implies. The difference between the two is the reason the pick exists, and it is on the card for you to judge.
A price in American format turns into a probability simply. A minus price is that number divided by itself plus 100, so minus 150 is about 60 percent. A plus price is 100 divided by the price plus 100, so plus 150 is 40 percent. If the model's number is well above the market's, the pick is saying the market has that team too cheap.
Baseball is a game of small margins spread across a long season. A good run of picks can still include losing weeks, and the full season on the ledger is a better guide than any single stretch.
How MLB picks are graded
Each pick is graded from the official final score. A game that is postponed or never completed is voided, shown on the ledger with the reason and never counted as a win or a loss.
Why the record can be trusted
Every ledger entry carries a cryptographic hash of the one before it, so any change to a past pick or result visibly breaks the chain, and the database refuses edits and deletions. If a week goes 3 and 7, the ledger says 3 and 7.
Questions
Are your MLB picks free?
Creating an account is free, and every settled MLB pick stays on the public ledger for anyone to check. Picks for today and upcoming games come with the MLB ledger plan, one sport at a time and cancel anytime.
When are MLB picks posted?
On game day, before first pitch, once the starting pitchers are known. Every pick is timestamped to the public ledger before the game begins.
Which MLB markets do you cover?
Mostly moneylines. Each pick shows the model's probability beside the market's, so the reason for the pick is on the card.
How does your MLB model make predictions?
It projects each game from the starting pitchers, lineups, bullpens, park and weather, turns that into a win probability and compares it with the market price. No clear gap, no pick.
Do you cover the MLB playoffs?
Yes. The postseason plays differently from the regular season, so we study playoff games on their own, and every playoff pick is graded on the same public record.
What happens if a game is postponed?
The pick is voided, stays on the ledger with the reason, and is never counted as a win or a loss.
How do I know your MLB record is real?
Every pick is written to a public, hash-chained ledger before first pitch and settled in the open afterward, wins and losses in the same font size. You can verify the whole record yourself.
Check the public record first, then unlock today's baseball picks. Every one is posted before first pitch and graded after the final out.
Informational only, not financial advice. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees, and historical results do not promise future ones. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.