Thursday, November 12 brings 188 games across six boards: 67 in college football, 63 in FCS, 29 in men's college basketball, 14 in the NFL, 11 in the NHL and 4 in the NBA. We have posted 18 calls so far. Sixteen are college basketball totals, all unders. One is an NBA side and one is an NHL total. Every pick settles on our public, tamper-evident ledger, wins and losses alike.
A concentration note before the board-by-board read: 16 unders on one night are not 16 independent outcomes. If early-season shooting runs hot across the sport, several of these can miss together. We state that up front because it is the main risk on today's card.
College Football
The biggest board of the day has no posted calls. Memphis at South Florida kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET and leads the slate. The listed card also includes Florida State at Pittsburgh, Illinois at UCLA, Northwestern at Ohio State, Georgia Tech at Clemson, Alabama at Vanderbilt and Cincinnati at Iowa State.
On college football, the model weighs efficiency per play over raw scoring, adjusts for pace and opponent strength, and discounts results inflated by turnovers or short fields. When the model's number sits close to the market number, we pass. A pass is a decision, and it is logged as one.
FCS
We could not verify a specific FCS storyline today, so we are not offering one. The listed card includes Illinois State at Youngstown State, Villanova at Holy Cross, Towson at Rhode Island and three Ivy League games: Princeton at Yale, Harvard at Penn and Dartmouth at Cornell. FCS numbers carry wider uncertainty because the data is thinner. The model widens its error bands to match, and that is one reason we have nothing posted here.
College Basketball
This is where the card is concentrated. Our posted calls:
- Under 161.5, Morgan State @ UMBC - Under 166.5, Tennessee Tech @ Indiana - Under 147.5, Mercyhurst @ Penn State - Under 139.0, Loyola (MD) @ Towson - Under 148.5, Southern Utah @ High Point - Under 147.0, Niagara @ Bowling Green - Under 145.5, Monmouth @ Quinnipiac - Under 146.5, Maryland-Eastern Shore @ Rhode Island - Under 148.0, Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart - Under 150.5, Mercer @ West Virginia - Under 144.0, Loyola Marymount @ South Alabama - Under 140.5, Southern @ Minnesota - Under 176.5, Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M - Under 156.0, Richmond @ Southern Illinois - Under 143.0, New Mexico State @ UTEP - Under 154.5, UC Riverside @ San José State
The last two are not on the main slate listed above. They are on the ledger all the same.
In November, the model leans on possession estimates and shot quality more than on early box scores, which are noisy. Lopsided non-conference matchups can also slow late in games when rotations change. That reasoning supports the lean, but it does not remove the correlation risk described above. Outside our calls, Montana State at No. 23 BYU is the lone ranked men's game. On the women's side, No. 4 UConn plays at No. 17 Ohio State (6:30 p.m., FS1) and No. 1 South Carolina plays at Clemson (7:00 p.m., ESPN2).
NFL
Week 10 opens tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium on Prime Video: Washington at the New York Giants. The Giants are 5-2-1, first in the NFC East, and going for a third straight win. Washington is 2-5-1 and third in a division that is still within reach. The last meeting between these teams ended in strange fashion. We have no posted call on this game.
The listed card also includes Kansas City at Atlanta, Minnesota at Green Bay, Buffalo at the Jets, San Francisco at Dallas, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati and the Chargers at Baltimore. We could not confirm injury or lineup news, so none is cited here. On NFL games, a sharp model weighs quarterback availability, early-down efficiency, line play and rest. With no verified injury inputs, our stance is to hold.
NHL
The NHL day starts at noon ET in Helsinki, Finland, where Carolina plays Seattle in the first of four international games this season. The defending champion Hurricanes are 14-3-2 and lead the league in both wins (14) and goal differential (+33). We have no call on that game.
Our posted call is Under 6.5 in Colorado @ Ottawa. Hockey totals are sensitive to who starts in goal and to power-play volume, and the model weighs both. One late empty-net goal can decide a 6.5 total, so treat this as a narrow-margin pick. Winnipeg at Dallas is the other notable night game.
NBA
Four games are on the card. Our posted call is Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 vs. Toronto. A 9.5-point spread asks for a clear margin, and late-game garbage time can move the final score in either direction. The model weighs rest, rotation depth and pace when it sets a number like this one.
In Minnesota, Cooper Flagg will try to lead Dallas to a fourth straight win after scoring 43 points on Monday. The Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites. We have no call there, and none on Detroit at Washington or Charlotte at Phoenix.
Every call above is timestamped on our public ledger and settles there, win or lose.
21+ only. Predictions are opinions, not certainties. Set limits, and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.