Friday, September 25, 2026 carries 169 listed events: 71 college football games, 65 FCS games, 17 MLB games and 16 NFL games. Several contests appear on more than one board. As of this writing, our public ledger shows 1 posted call: CWS ML (COL @ CWS). Every other matchup below is context, not a pick. Where we have no posted number, we say so rather than fill the space.
College Football
The featured game is Northwestern @ Indiana, 8 p.m. ET on FOX. It is the first Big Ten game for both teams and Northwestern's first road game of the season.
The numbers frame the matchup. No. 5 Indiana is 3-0 and has outscored North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky by a combined 145-16. Indiana is also 0-3 against the spread despite an average winning margin of 43 points. Three games is a small sample, and we do not treat that record as predictive by itself. It does show that the market has priced Indiana aggressively all season, and the scoreboard has not kept pace with those expectations. Northwestern is 2-0 and unranked, with wins over South Dakota State and Colorado. The Colorado win was 41-7.
The injury report weighs heavily on both sides:
- Indiana: CB Carson Williams, WR Lebron Bond and RB Khobie Martin are out. CB A.J. Harris is doubtful. Starting K Nico Radicic is questionable after missing 2 straight weeks with a back injury. - Northwestern: 14 players are listed out and 3 doubtful. The doubtful group includes fifth-year starting DB Braden Turner. OL Ezomo Oratokhai is out after leaving the Colorado game.
The larger storyline is Indiana defending its national title without Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, who left early for the NFL Draft and went to the Raiders. A careful model does not lean on the championship banner. It weighs current efficiency per play, the depth of each secondary once the absences are counted, special-teams risk if Radicic cannot kick, and the travel and road factor for Northwestern. We have no posted call on this game.
The rest of Friday's college slate includes Army @ Temple, Navy @ UAB, Howard @ Rutgers and Clemson @ California. The two service academies bring option-based offenses that shorten games and reduce the number of possessions. A model has to account for that directly, because fewer possessions widen the range of outcomes. The wider listed board runs through larger matchups such as Oklahoma @ Georgia, Texas @ Tennessee, Illinois @ Ohio State and Notre Dame @ Purdue. We have no verified notes on those games today and no posted calls.
NFL
The listed NFL slate has 16 games. They include Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo, Kansas City @ Miami, Baltimore @ Dallas, Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh, Philadelphia @ Chicago and Los Angeles Rams @ Denver.
Our research could not confirm any NFL news for today, so we are not offering injury or form claims. In professional football, a model's inputs generally include quarterback availability, offensive line continuity, schedule rest and the signal from early-season efficiency, which is still noisy. Without verified inputs, we hold. We have no posted NFL calls.
FCS
The listed FCS board has 65 games, with 2 confirmed Friday games: Howard @ Rutgers and Harvard @ Brown.
Indiana has already played Howard this season and was part of that 145-16 combined margin. That result is one data point about Howard's level against top FBS competition. A careful model would not simply carry it over to a different opponent. Harvard @ Brown is an Ivy League matchup, and that is the more even setting on paper.
The wider listed slate includes South Dakota @ Youngstown State, Furman @ Richmond, Chattanooga @ The Citadel and Yale @ Cornell. FCS data is thinner, so model uncertainty is higher, and we size our confidence down to match. We have no posted FCS calls.
MLB
The regular season has 3 days left, and the postseason begins Tuesday. The Rays and Brewers have clinched No. 1 seeds, and the Dodgers have clinched a No. 2 seed. The Guardians are in line for a top-two seed.
This stage of the season changes what the model has to weigh. Clinched clubs may rest regulars or shorten starters' outings, so lineup cards and bullpen usage can differ from season-long patterns. That affects TB @ PHI, STL @ MIL, LAD @ SF and, to a lesser degree, CLE @ KC.
The listed slate includes starter names, and several are TBD. Our research could not confirm Friday's starting pitchers. Treat every listed matchup as provisional until lineups are posted.
Our one posted call today is CWS ML in COL @ CWS. The slate lists Tomoyuki Sugano against Sean Burke, but as noted above, that pairing is unconfirmed. Before placing any weight on a pitching matchup, confirm the starters. If a scheduled starter changes, the conditions behind the number change as well.
The call settles on our public, tamper-evident ledger along with every other pick we post. Results are recorded whether the pick wins or loses. Any single game carries real variance, and a sound process can still produce a loss on a given night.
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