The day is wide and college-heavy: 71 college football games headline, followed by a 16-game NFL slate that runs into Monday night at SoFi. FCS adds 65 games, with three MLB matchups and two WNBA games rounding out the board. No calls are posted yet as of this writing. Predictions post through the day and settle on our public, tamper-evident ledger, selection and line recorded, no prices.
College Football
The marquee names are stacked. Texas at Tennessee is the ranked-caliber road test of the day, a game where a sharp model weighs quarterback pressure rates, explosive-play allowance and the value of a hostile environment before assigning a probability. Oklahoma at Georgia is the second heavyweight, a matchup where line play and turnover margin usually carry more predictive weight than any single skill position. Clemson at California is a cross-country spot worth flagging: travel and kickoff timing can shift a model's fair number by a point or more.
Illinois at Ohio State and Notre Dame at Purdue are the Big Ten and independent tests where talent gaps are real but not always fully priced. Northwestern at Indiana, UCLA at Maryland, and Colorado at Baylor fill out the Power-conference slate. On the Group of Five and lower boards, Navy at UAB, San Diego State at Toledo, and Colorado State at UTSA are the kinds of games where efficiency metrics and pace tend to out-predict name recognition.
We have not verified individual player availability across these 71 games, so any call we post will lean on team-level model outputs rather than unconfirmed injury reads. When we post, the selection and the number will appear on the ledger.
NFL
The slate closes on Monday Night Football: New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 PM ET on ESPN. The Giants arrive 1-0 after a 28-20 win over Dallas at MetLife, holding the ball more than 36 minutes, with Jaxson Dart throwing three touchdowns and adding 54 rushing yards. The Rams enter off a 27-7 loss and try to rebound behind Matthew Stafford.
Injuries shape this one. Rams WR Puka Nacua is officially questionable with a groin issue, Jordan Whittington (quadriceps) is doubtful, and S Kamren Kinchens (hamstring) is ruled out. For the Giants, Adebo is out at least the next four weeks and Banks is questionable. Donald plans to debut for Los Angeles, while Garrett remains on injured reserve. A model reads a questionable No. 1 receiver as a probability-weighted input, not a binary, and adjusts the passing projection accordingly rather than overreacting. The Giants' Week 1 time-of-possession edge is a signal, but one game is a small sample, and we treat it with appropriate uncertainty.
The fuller Sunday board is deep: Detroit at Buffalo and Cincinnati at Houston are the higher-total tests, Indianapolis at Kansas City and Green Bay at the Jets are road spots against rested defenses, and Washington at Dallas is a division game where recency bias often distorts the number. Where our model finds a gap between its probability and the posted line, we will post the pick and the line to the ledger and state the edge exactly as computed.
FCS
Sixty-five games, including several that overlap the FBS slate: Howard at Rutgers and Bucknell at Pittsburgh are FCS-versus-FBS crossovers where the class gap is usually large and the market usually knows it. The purer FCS reads are the conference games: Harvard at Brown, Yale at Cornell, and Holy Cross at Lafayette in the Northeast, plus North Dakota at Indiana State and South Dakota at Youngstown State in the Missouri Valley, where scoring margins run wide and model discipline on inflated numbers matters. We could not independently verify player availability across the FCS board, so any posted call rests on team-level projections. Selections and lines settle on the ledger.
MLB
Three games: Toronto at Baltimore, Washington at Detroit, and Minnesota at San Francisco. Publicly listed probable starters were not fully verifiable at the time of writing, so we are withholding pitcher-dependent reads rather than speculate. Starting pitching is the single largest input to a baseball model's fair number, so until the arms are confirmed, any probability here carries wider-than-usual uncertainty. If we post, it will name the pick and the line, and it will settle on the ledger like everything else.
WNBA
Two playoff-tuning games: Atlanta at New York Liberty at 8 PM ET, and Dallas at Phoenix at 10 PM ET. The key availability note is that Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu is sidelined after rolling her ankle in a preseason game against Connecticut. A missing primary creator meaningfully lowers a team's projected offensive efficiency, and a model prices that as a downward adjustment rather than a small footnote. That said, roster response and usage redistribution add uncertainty, so we hold our read with appropriate humility. Any call posts with selection and line to the ledger.
Across the full board, the discipline is the same: post only where the model probability and the posted line diverge enough to matter, state the edge exactly, and record every call publicly. Losses are part of this. No outcome here is certain, and short samples can and do move against a sound process.
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