The Colorado Avalanche visit the Ottawa Senators tonight, November 12, 2026, with identical 11-6-2 records. Colorado sits fourth in the Western Conference and Ottawa sixth in the Eastern. This is the first meeting since January 28, when the Senators won 5-2 in Ottawa. The total is 6.5, priced at -102 on the over and -118 on the under.
The call
Under 6.5 goals, at -118.
For this pick to win, the two teams must combine for 6 goals or fewer, overtime included. A shootout winner counts as one goal toward the final score, so a 3-3 game decided in a shootout lands at 7 and loses. A 4-2 or 3-3 regulation-plus-overtime finish wins. At -118, the price implies roughly a 54% break-even rate, so the under is the market's slight favorite and the payout reflects that.
The matchup
The two scoring profiles pull in opposite directions, and that is the center of the call.
Colorado leads the league at 4.11 goals per game. Thirteen of its 19 games have finished above 6.5. Its most recent outing fits that pattern: a 6-3 win over Toronto in which 13 Avalanche players recorded at least one point. Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 13 goals. Nathan MacKinnon has seven goals in his last eight games against Ottawa. Mackenzie Blackwood made 28 saves on 31 shots against Toronto.
Ottawa plays a much quieter game. Only 6 of its 19 games have gone over 6.5. The Senators have scored 58 goals (3.0 per game, 14th) and allowed 57 (3.0 per game, 19th). Their power play converts at 12.5%, which ranks 31st, and that limits one of the most common sources of extra goals. Tim Stutzle leads the team with 23 points and 14 assists. His nine goals tie him with Drake Batherson for the team lead. Ottawa comes in off a 3-2 overtime loss to Washington, another game that stayed well under this number.
The pick depends on the game following Ottawa's tempo more than Colorado's. If the Senators hold the Avalanche near their own goals-against average and produce near their season scoring rate, the result falls around 6 combined goals. That is a narrow margin, not a comfortable one.
We found no confirmed starting goalies and no current injury news for either side at the time of writing. Both are material unknowns for any total.
The case against
The strongest argument for the over is Colorado's own record. Thirteen overs in 19 games is a 68% rate, and the Avalanche lead the league in scoring. If Colorado scores near its 4.11 average, Ottawa needs only 3 goals to push this over, which is exactly its season scoring average. That arithmetic is the clearest path to a loss.
Other specific risks:
- Goaltending. Starters are unconfirmed. A backup in either crease could change the scoring environment quickly. - Recent head-to-head. The last meeting produced 7 goals in a 5-2 Ottawa win, which would have gone over this number. - MacKinnon against Ottawa. Seven goals in his last eight games against the Senators is a direct threat to the under. - Late-game mechanics. Empty-net goals and shootout winners can turn a 3-2 or 3-3 game into 7. - Ottawa's defense. Allowing 3.0 goals per game ranks 19th. It is not a unit that reliably suppresses elite offenses.
The under is priced as a modest favorite at -118, and the evidence on each side is real. This is a reasonable pick with a clear way to lose, and it should be treated that way.
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