Delaware (4-4) visits Kennesaw State (2-6) today, November 7, 2026, in a Conference USA game at Fifth Third Stadium. Kickoff is 3 p.m. on ESPN+. It is Kennesaw State's homecoming, and the Owls have designated it a Mental Health Awareness game.
The two programs have traded places in a year. Kennesaw State won the 2025 CUSA championship over Jacksonville State and is now 2-6. Delaware, in its second CUSA season since moving up from FCS, has won two straight and is the team with a realistic path to a bowl game. Our pick is Under 13.5 points in the first quarter.
The number
Our model engine returned no data for this game.
- Model probability: not available - Market-implied probability: not available - Edge: none recorded - Model confidence: none recorded
We will not estimate or reconstruct these figures. Without a model probability and a market price, we cannot say whether Under 13.5 carries a measurable edge. Read the rest of this analysis as a qualitative case built from public team data, not as a quantified model output.
The pick and its result will be logged on our public ledger like every other entry. Because no edge was recorded, readers reviewing our record should treat this entry separately from model-backed picks.
Why the model leans this way
With no engine output, the case rests on the researched context.
Season scoring rates point to a modest pace. An October 18 preview listed Kennesaw State at 22.3 points per game and Delaware at 22.8. Combined, that is 45.1 points per game. If you split that evenly across four quarters, the result is about 11.3 points per quarter. That is simple arithmetic, not a projection, and real games do not distribute scoring evenly. Still, it sits below 13.5. Both figures are about three weeks old and have likely moved since.
Kennesaw State's offense has been inefficient. The Owls rank 100th in FBS at 352.4 total yards per game. Their results include:
- a 17-14 loss at Arkansas State - a 27-26 loss to Jacksonville State - a 24-21 loss at Missouri State - a 34-6 loss to Liberty
In several of those games, the Owls' total output would have produced few points in any single quarter. An offense that moves the ball slowly is less likely to supply its share of a quick first-quarter total.
Field position may favor the defenses early. Kennesaw State punter Matt McKenzie was named to the Ray Guy midseason watch list. A strong punter can pin opponents deep, which matters most in a short window like one quarter. We cannot measure that effect from the data we have, so it is a supporting point, not a primary one.
The line leaves little room. At 13.5, the Under wins on scorelines such as 7-3, 7-6, 10-0 or 7-0. It loses at two touchdowns, 14-0 or 7-7. A first quarter with one touchdown plus a field goal, or less, clears.
The case against
This is a thin case, and the counterarguments are concrete.
Delaware's recent offense has been far above its season average. The Blue Hens scored 61 points against Missouri State and 35 at Western Kentucky in their last two games. They also put up 30 in a 33-30 loss at Middle Tennessee before that. The roughly 22.8 points per game figure from mid-October understates their current form. An offense ranked 57th in FBS at 395.8 yards per game and trending up can produce two first-quarter touchdowns by itself.
Kennesaw State has shown it can score too. The Owls won 44-28 at Middle Tennessee on October 28, their highest-scoring result in the data we have. If that performance reflects improvement rather than a one-off, the Owls' 22.3 average is also stale.
Delaware's defense is a real weakness. The Blue Hens allow 406.5 yards per game, which ranks 24th-worst in FBS. Even a below-average offense like Kennesaw State's can find early drives against that unit. That would raise scoring on both sides of the ledger.
Variance in a single quarter is high. Fifteen minutes of game time can swing on one turnover, a return touchdown or a short field. Two touchdowns, 14 points, are enough to beat this pick. That can happen in an otherwise low-scoring game. Without a model probability, we cannot put a reliable number on how often the Under fails here. Given the 13.5 line and Delaware's recent output, a reasonable reading is that the outcome is close to a coin flip, with real risk to the Under.
Information gaps. We could not confirm any injury or lineup news for either team, and the scoring averages are dated. Either gap could change the picture, and neither is accounted for in this analysis.
Our bottom line: Under 13.5 in the first quarter is a lean grounded in Kennesaw State's offensive inefficiency and modest season scoring rates. It carries no recorded model edge and faces a Delaware offense in clear upward form. Size any position accordingly.
21+. Predictions carry risk of loss; set limits you can afford, and if you need support, call 1-800-522-4700.