No. 23 BYU (2-0) hosts Queens (2-1) of the ASUN at the Marriott Center tonight, November 10, 2026, with tip-off at 7 p.m. MST. The Cougars beat Ohio State in their opener and Omaha 108-67 on Friday, then moved from No. 25 to No. 23 in the AP Poll. Guard Rob Wright III arrives as the reigning Big 12 Player of the Week.
Queens opened with wins over Winthrop and at LMU (96-95). The Royals then lost 118-68 at Oklahoma State on Friday. They have allowed at least 95 points in all three games and scored at least 96 in two of them. The pick is Under 179.0, against a team whose recent box scores point the other way. Here is why we lean under anyway, and where that lean is weakest.
The number
- Pick: Under 179.0 (total) - Model probability: n/a - Market-implied probability: n/a - Edge: None - Model confidence: None
Our model engine produced no data for this game. That means no probability, no edge and no confidence figure. We will not invent one. This pick goes on the public ledger like every other, but it carries no quantified edge from our model, and readers should weigh it accordingly.
For market context, DraftKings lists the total at 181.5, which is 2.5 points above our 179.0. That gap is a reminder that the number you get matters. Under at 181.5 and under at 179.0 are not the same position.
Why the model leans this way
Without model output, the case rests on the researched context and on two outside projections.
Outside projections land under the line. KenPom predicts a 100-76 BYU win, a combined 176. Dimers' model projects BYU 96-69, a combined 165. Both sit below 179.0, by 3 and 14 points. Both also project a lopsided result, which matters for the next point.
Blowout dynamics. If BYU builds a large margin, the second half often slows. Benches empty, possessions get longer and the urgency to score fades. A projected 24- or 27-point margin fits that pattern.
Recent results are mixed, not uniformly high. - BYU's 108-67 win over Omaha totaled 175, under 179. - BYU beat Queens 99-55 in Provo on November 13, 2024. That totaled 154, 25 points under tonight's line. - Queens' two published high-scoring games totaled 191 (96-95 at LMU) and 186 (118-68 at Oklahoma State). Both cleared 179.
The last meeting in this building was decided by one team's inability to score. Queens managed 55 that night.
Travel. Queens is playing its fourth game in a fourth different time zone. Fatigue on the road can show up as tired legs and cold shooting in the second half. That would cut into the Royals' share of the total. This is a plausible mechanism, not a measured effect.
Queens' offense is built on two-pointers. The Royals rank first nationally in both rim attempts and two-point field goals made. Living at the rim does produce points. It also makes them dependent on getting there. A ranked home defense that walls off the paint could cap their output closer to the 69–76 range the projections imply.
The case against
This is a genuinely live over, and the arguments are concrete.
Queens' games have been shootouts. The Royals have allowed 95 or more in all three games. Two of the three known totals cleared 179 comfortably. A team that concedes 95-plus nightly needs only to reach about 84 of its own to push this game over.
The three-point defense is a real problem. Opponents are shooting 49% from three against Queens, which ranks 330th of 365 teams. BYU just scored 108 against Omaha. If Wright and the Cougars convert open looks at anything like that rate, BYU alone could reach 105 to 115. That would leave Queens needing only about 65 to 75 for the over.
Queens can score. The Royals put up at least 96 in two of three games. Their nine returning players rank 45th nationally in minutes returned, so this is an experienced group. Leading the nation in rim attempts and two-point makes means they generate efficient looks, and fouls, against most defenses.
The 2024 meeting may not carry over. That game was nearly two years ago, with different rosters on both sides. Leaning on 154 points from November 2024 is weak evidence.
Ordinary variance. College basketball totals swing widely on free throws, late-game fouling and a few hot shooting stretches. Even if 176 is a fair central estimate, a 179.0 line sits close enough that the over hits in a substantial share of outcomes. A rough coin-flip-adjacent range is a reasonable expectation. Absent a model probability, we cannot be more precise than that.
No injury or lineup news was confirmed for either team. Any late change, in either direction, is unpriced in this analysis.
Bottom line: the under is supported by two outside projections and the blowout script. It is challenged by Queens' defensive numbers and scoring history, and it carries no model-quantified edge.
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