Third-ranked Illinois (2-1) returns home on Friday, November 13, 2026, to host the Sam Houston Bearkats (2-1) at State Farm Center. Tip is 6 p.m. CT on B1G+. Illinois is coming off its first road games of the season and its first loss, to No. 16 Texas Tech (3-0) on Tuesday. A trip to No. 2 Duke is less than a week away. This is the first meeting between the two programs.
The call
Selection: Under 170.5 (total points)
Line: 170.5. For reference, FanDuel lists the total at 171.5, with Illinois -36.5.
To win, the two teams must combine for 170 points or fewer. A final of 171 or more loses. There is no push at a half-point line.
The matchup
Scoring baselines. Last season Illinois averaged 83.2 points per game, 28th in the country. Sam Houston averaged 82.3, 45th. Those two figures add to 165.5, which is 5.0 points below our line of 170.5. That is a thin cushion, not a wide one, and it rests on last season's numbers against different schedules. It is a reference point, not a forecast.
Illinois personnel. Andrej Stojakovic leads the Illini at 21.0 points per game. Ethan Brown leads the team in rebounds (7.7) and assists (5.0). No confirmed injury or lineup news was found for either side.
Sam Houston personnel. The Bearkats have three guards averaging 10 or more points per game. Their identity is the glass: they have 52 offensive rebounds through three games this season, and last season they ranked 18th nationally at 36.6 rebounds per game. Brad Underwood said he expects them to crash the offensive glass "like crazy."
Game shape. A 36.5-point spread signals a lopsided matchup. In games with margins of that size, the second half often belongs to reserves, and rotations widen. That can flatten scoring late. The schedule adds a layer: Illinois is coming off a road loss and faces Duke within a week. Managing starter minutes in a home game against a heavy underdog is a reasonable expectation, though not a certainty.
Coaching history. Underwood is 8-0 all-time against Sam Houston, a record built while he coached Stephen F. Austin. It is a curiosity rather than a scoring indicator, since those games involved different rosters and a different program on his side.
The case against
This pick carries real risk, and it should be stated plainly.
1. One-sided totals can still go high. The Under depends on both teams contributing. If Illinois performs at its ceiling, it could approach or exceed 100 points on its own. Sam Houston would then need only about 70 for the total to clear 170.5. 2. Offensive rebounds add possessions. Fifty-two offensive rebounds in three games means extra shot attempts. If the Bearkats win that battle, second-chance points push the total upward even in a lopsided game. 3. A reset game can mean a fast game. Coming off a loss, Illinois may push tempo early to restore rhythm. Bench units playing late are not reliably slower and can score efficiently against a tired opponent. 4. Small samples. Each team has played only three games this season. Last season's averages are the best available baseline, but rosters and roles change between years. 5. The cushion is small. The 165.5 reference sits only 5.0 points under the line. One hot shooting half from either side erases that margin.
If this Under loses, the most likely reason is an efficient Illinois blowout combined with enough Sam Houston second-chance scoring to carry the total past 170.
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