Xavier (3-0) and Mississippi State (3-0) meet Friday, November 13, 2026, at 9 p.m. in Colonial Hall at the Greenbrier Tip-Off in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. The game airs on FS1 and streams on FOX One. Xavier is a 3.5-point favorite, and the total sits at 164.5.
The call
Under 164.5 total points.
For this pick to win, the two teams must combine for 164 points or fewer. A final of 84-80 lands exactly at 164 and wins. Any combined score of 165 or higher loses. There is no push at a half-point line.
The number is high for a college game. It assumes both offenses carry their early-season scoring into a much tougher matchup. The Under needs that scoring to come down against real resistance on an unfamiliar floor.
The matchup
Recent form. Both teams arrive off routs of overmatched opponents:
- Xavier beat Detroit Mercy 100-55 on Tuesday. Michael Nwoko led with 17 points. - Mississippi State beat Jackson State 98-57 on Monday. Tristan Reed had 14 points, eight rebounds and two assists. It was the Bulldogs' third straight win.
Those two games each produced 155 combined points, 9.5 under tonight's line. That figure comes with a large caveat. In both games, one team supplied most of the scoring against a weaker opponent. Each team scored roughly 100. Neither faced anything resembling the other.
Personnel. Xavier's roster is almost entirely new:
- 11 newcomers, including seven transfers and four freshmen. - Senior Chance Westry leads in scoring at 14.3 points per game. - Senior Nikos Chitikoudis leads in rebounding at 9.0 per game.
A rebuilt rotation facing its first neutral-site opponent from a major conference can produce stretches of disjointed half-court offense. Those stretches help an Under.
Defense. Xavier leads the BIG EAST in steals at 14.3 per game. That cuts both ways:
- Turnovers end possessions without points, which helps the Under. - Steals also create transition baskets, which push the score up.
How Mississippi State handles pressure is one of the central questions of this game.
Setting and schedule.
- This is Xavier's first regular-season game away from Cintas Center. - It is Richard Pitino's second season at Xavier, after four at New Mexico. - Xavier is 30-17 in its last 47 games against 14 different current SEC members since 2003-04. - Xavier is 2-1 against the spread this season.
The setting is a resort event hall, not a home arena. The first true road-style test for a new roster is a reasonable environment for a slower, more careful game.
Injuries. No confirmed injury or lineup news was found for either team.
The case against
The plainest risk is that both offenses keep doing what they have done. Each team scored about 100 in its most recent game. If even a fraction of that carries over, 165 arrives quickly. For example, a final of 85-80 clears the line.
Other ways this pick loses:
- Transition scoring. If Xavier's steals turn into a run of transition points, scoring rises fast. - Free throws. An aggressive whistle in a neutral-site event game adds points that the half-court defense never gets to contest. - Shooting variance. A hot shooting night from either team can overwhelm any defensive trend. - Late-game fouling. If the game is within one or two possessions late, intentional fouling can add 6 to 10 points in the final minute. That turns a near-miss Under into a loss.
The sample is also very thin. Three games each, mostly against overmatched opponents, say little about how these two teams play against each other. The early scoring numbers could understate or overstate both offenses.
This is a single game, and a well-reasoned Under can lose on one hot half. Our full record, wins and losses alike, is on the public ledger.
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