No. 11 Tennessee (2-0) hosts Tennessee State (2-1) on Friday, November 13, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET at Food City Center in Knoxville, streaming on SECN+. It is the Volunteers' third game of the 2026-27 season and an in-state rematch of a game Tennessee won by 29 points a year ago. Tennessee carries national rankings across the board: No. 11 in the AP poll, No. 9 in the Coaches poll, No. 23 at KenPom and No. 21 at Bart Torvik. Tennessee State arrives as the defending Ohio Valley regular-season and tournament champion.
The call
The pick is Under 154.5 total points.
One number needs to be stated up front. The total listed at FanDuel in our research is 157.5, three points higher than our line of 154.5. Our pick is recorded at 154.5 and will be graded at 154.5. Anyone comparing numbers should know the currently listed total is more favorable to the Under than the line this pick is tracked against.
For the pick to win, the two teams must combine for 154 points or fewer. A final of 155 or more is a loss. There is no push at a half-point line.
In practical terms, if Tennessee scores in the high 80s, Tennessee State needs to stay in the mid-60s or below. If Tennessee reaches 95, the Tigers need to be held to 59 or fewer.
The matchup
Last year's reference point. On November 20, 2025, Tennessee beat Tennessee State 89-60 in this building before 17,313. That is 149 total points, 5.5 under today's line. One game is a small sample and both rosters have changed, but it is the only head-to-head data point available, and it landed under.
Program profiles. Tennessee went 25-12 (11-7 SEC) last season under Rick Barnes and reached the Elite Eight. Tennessee State went 23-10 (15-5 OVC), swept the OVC titles and lost in the NCAA first round; the conference tournament title was Nolan Smith's first as head coach.
Personnel. Tennessee's most recent starting five was guards Terrence Hill Jr., Juke Harris and Tyler Lundblade with forwards DeWayne Brown II and Braedan Lue. Tennessee State started Deondrea Lindsey, Aaron Bradshaw, Christian Alston, Arterio Morris and Ty-Laur Johnson. We could not confirm injury news for either side.
Game shape. The listed spread is Tennessee -29.5. A margin that wide describes a game the favorite is expected to control from early on. When a home team leads by 25 or more in the second half, rotations typically deepen and the urgency to push tempo fades, which can slow scoring in the final ten minutes. The Under is a view that this game follows a similar path to last November's: Tennessee in control, Tennessee State unable to keep pace offensively, and a total settling in the 140s or low 150s.
What we do not know. We could not verify scores from either team's earlier games this season. That means there is no 2026-27 pace or efficiency data in this write-up, and readers should weigh the pick accordingly.
The case against
This pick has clear ways to lose.
- Tennessee's scoring ceiling. A -29.5 spread implies Tennessee could score 90 or more. At 92, Tennessee State would need to be held to 62 or fewer. The margin for error is thin. - The line itself. Our 154.5 is three points below the 157.5 listed. A final of 155, 156 or 157 would lose at our number while winning at the listed one. That gap is a real cost. - Tennessee State's offense. The Tigers are defending conference champions, not last year's starting point. If they score in the 70s, the Under is likely in trouble regardless of Tennessee's output. - Late-game volatility. Bench minutes in a lopsided game can produce loose possessions, quick threes and free throws, adding points the early game script would not suggest. - Thin information. No current-season scores or injury confirmations were available. One prior meeting is the strongest supporting fact, and one game is a weak foundation.
The result goes on our public ledger either way, win or loss.
21+ only. Predictions carry real risk of loss; set limits in advance and only use money you can afford to lose.