Nicholls (1-1) travels to New Orleans on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, to face Tulane (1-1) at Avron B. Fogelman Arena in Devlin Fieldhouse. Tipoff is 6:30 p.m. local, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, on ESPN+. This is college basketball, so there are no starting pitchers to assess. The relevant inputs are each team's tempo, early-season scoring and the history of this in-state series.
That history is lopsided. This is the 24th regular-season meeting. Tulane leads the series 22-1 and has won five straight. Last season the Green Wave won 82-72 at home on November 28, 2025.
Our pick is Under 151.5. Before making the case, we should be clear about how much support it has.
The number
- Model probability: n/a - Market-implied probability: n/a - Edge: None - Model confidence: None
Our engine returned no data for this game. That means there is no projected score, no probability and no measured edge behind this pick. We also could not confirm a current market total. When we checked, RotoWire listed no available lines, so 151.5 is the number of record for this pick, not a price we verified independently.
We are not going to present a model edge that does not exist. This pick goes on the public ledger like every other and will be graded the same way. Readers should weigh it as a pick built on context, not on a quantified advantage.
Why the model leans this way
With no engine output, the case for the Under comes from the limited facts available.
Nicholls has a small and uneven sample. The Colonels opened with a 110-56 home win over North American on November 2. That game produced 166 total points against a clearly overmatched opponent. Four days later, against a real Division I road opponent, Nicholls lost 63-70 at UAB, a 133-point game.
- The two-game average is 149.5 points, already under 151.5. - The game that looks more like Tuesday's setup, a road date against a D-I opponent, finished 18.5 points under this line.
If the UAB game better reflects how Nicholls plays away from home, the Under has a reasonable basis.
Tulane's scoring is concentrated in one player. Lewis is averaging 25.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals. Carson Schwieger and TJ Nadeau each scored 16 to lead Tulane in one of its two games. We could not confirm the opponents or scores of Tulane's first two games, so we cannot set a baseline for Tulane totals. We will not estimate one.
There are no reported injuries or lineup changes for either side. No obvious factor pushes scoring up or down, which keeps the read anchored to the early-season results above.
Schedule context is neutral to mildly favorable. Tulane has its first road trip of the season next, at Akron on Saturday, November 14. Nicholls hosts La. Tech the same day. We see no clear reason either team would push tempo here.
That is the full case. It is thin, and we would rather say so than overstate it.
The case against
The arguments for the Over are concrete.
The most recent meeting went over. Tulane's 82-72 win last November totaled 154 points, 2.5 above this line. The most direct evidence from this matchup cuts against the pick, even with different rosters a year later.
Nicholls can score a lot when the game opens up. A 110-point game is real evidence of capacity, even against North American. If Tulane plays loose defense or the game turns into an early runaway, Nicholls' ability to keep scoring matters.
Lopsided games can produce late inflation. Tulane is 22-1 in this series. If the Green Wave pull away, a blowout can bring:
- substitutions and loose defense, - quick shots in garbage time, - late fouling.
Any of these can add points in the final minutes. A 25-point margin with both teams in the high 70s or 80s clears 151.5 easily.
Lewis alone can move the total. A player averaging 25.0 points who has a 35-point night shifts the math by himself. Schwieger and Nadeau have each shown 16-point games as secondary options.
Variance is large in November. Each team has played two games. Early-season college basketball totals regularly finish 15 to 20 points from the posted number in either direction, and the Nicholls sample alone spans 133 to 166. Without a model probability, we cannot say how often this pick should win. A fair working assumption is close to a coin flip, and we would not argue strongly against someone who sees the Over as the better side.
The line itself is unverified. If the current total differs from 151.5, the read changes. A lower number would weaken the Under, and a higher one would strengthen it.
The bottom line: this is a low-conviction Under, supported by the Nicholls road result and opposed by last season's 154-point meeting. It will be recorded and graded on the public ledger regardless of outcome.
21+. Predictions carry real risk of loss. Set limits, use only discretionary funds, and seek help if it stops being fun.