Nebraska (2-0) hosts Lindenwood (2-1) on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, at 9:00 p.m. ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, with the broadcast on FS1. Nebraska is listed as a 34.5-point favorite. The lone prior meeting, on November 6, 2023, in Lincoln, ended 84-52 in Nebraska's favor, a combined 136 points.
The call
The pick is Under 151.5 total points.
For this to win, the two teams must combine for 151 points or fewer. A final of 151 wins; 152 or more loses. The researched market total is 150.5, so the 151.5 number used here sits one point higher. That extra point is a small cushion, not a margin anyone should lean on heavily.
In practical terms, the Under needs Nebraska's defense to look something like last season's version, and it needs the game to avoid a high-possession track meet in the second half.
The matchup
There are no verified scores from either team's games this season, and no injury, lineup or rotation news was found. Everything below draws on 2025-26 figures, which may not fully describe either 2026-27 roster.
Nebraska's defense. The Cornhuskers allowed 66.1 points per game last season, 16th nationally, and held opponents to 40.5% shooting, 22nd. Their games averaged 143.1 combined points (77.0 scored, 66.1 allowed), which is 8.4 points below this number.
Nebraska's ball security. Nebraska averaged 18.0 assists against 9.3 turnovers. A team that rarely gives the ball away limits the opponent's cheapest points in transition.
Lindenwood's profile. The Lions went 18-15 last season, 11-9 in the OVC, finishing sixth under head coach Kyle Gerdeman. They scored 77.8 and allowed 72.7, a combined 150.5 per game, right at this number. They allowed 42.4% shooting, 70th nationally.
A rough blend. Averaging each offense's output with the opposing defense's allowance gives about 74.9 for Nebraska and 72.0 for Lindenwood, roughly 146.8 combined. This is crude arithmetic on last season's data, not a forecast, and it ignores roster turnover and the talent gap between conferences. It does, however, land below 151.5.
History and context. The 2023 meeting finished at 136. This season also carries new weight for Lindenwood: after a four-year transition to Division I, 2026-27 is the Lions' first year of NCAA postseason eligibility.
The case against
The risks are real, and several point the same direction.
Lindenwood's recent totals. Over its last 25 games, Lindenwood has gone over the game total in 15, a 60% rate. The Lions' own games have tended to run high.
Turnovers feeding Nebraska. Lindenwood averaged 13.0 turnovers last season, 337th nationally. Live-ball giveaways become layups and run-outs, and a 34.5-point spread implies Nebraska is expected to score a great deal. A Nebraska total in the 90s would leave Lindenwood needing very little to push this over.
Second chances. Lindenwood ranked 45th in offensive rebounding, while Nebraska ranked 300th on its own offensive glass. Extra Lindenwood possessions add points that a defensive field-goal percentage does not capture.
Blowout dynamics. Lopsided games can drift in either direction late. Bench units, loose defense and fouling can inflate a total as easily as a running clock can suppress it.
Thin current information. With no verified 2026-27 scores and no rotation news, this analysis rests on last season's numbers. If either roster changed meaningfully, those figures may mislead.
The pick can lose, and this one has identifiable paths to doing so.
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