Washington State arrives at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) at 0-2 and facing a rare piece of program history. Before this two-game road trip, which opened at High Point in North Carolina, the school noted that the Cougars were trying to avoid an 0-2 start for the first time since 2014-15. Since 1970, WSU had opened 0-2 only twice; the other time was 1972-73. That has now happened, so the question tonight is whether Washington State can avoid an 0-3 start. Duquesne is 2-0 and at home.
Our pick is Under 148.5. Before the case, here is the most important disclosure in this piece.
The number
- Pick: Under 148.5 (game total) - Model probability: n/a - Market-implied probability: n/a - Edge: None - Model confidence: None
Our model engine produced no data for this game: no probability, no projected total, no edge figure. We are not going to fill that gap with an estimate. This pick is logged on our public ledger like every other selection, and readers should weigh it knowing that no quantified model edge supports it.
The market itself is not settled. One major sportsbook lists the total at 144.5 with Duquesne favored by 3.5. Another source lists 148.5 with Duquesne favored by 4.5. That is a 4-point spread between quotes on the total. The pick is at 148.5, the high end of the observed range.
Why the model leans this way
Without engine output, the reasoning comes from the market and the context. There are three parts to it.
1. The price sits at the top of the range. If credible quotes run from 144.5 to 148.5, an Under at 148.5 has 4 more points of cushion than an Under at 144.5. In college basketball, totals often land within a few points of the posted number, so 4 points of separation is meaningful. Taking the high side of a split market is the main structural argument for this pick.
2. Early-season information is thin. Both teams have played only two games. We could not confirm the scores of either team's games this season, and we found no injury or lineup news. The full-season scoring averages available to us are from last season, when rosters, rotations and sometimes coaching situations were different. When current-season data is this sparse, the market is pricing partly off stale numbers. A total at the top of its range can reflect last year's scoring environment more than this year's.
3. Situational context. Washington State is finishing a two-game, cross-country road trip, from North Carolina to Pittsburgh. Its record is 0-2 and an 0-3 start would be its first in decades. Teams in that position sometimes shorten games and play more deliberately. This is a plausible tendency, not a measured one, and we present it as context rather than evidence.
To be precise about the limits: this sport has no starting pitchers or park factors to cite, and we have no verified pace, efficiency or projected-score data for this game. The case rests on the line, the market split and the early-season information gap.
The case against
The strongest argument against this pick is last season's scoring, and it is substantial.
- Duquesne scored 78.3 points per game and allowed 75.2. That works out to roughly 153.5 combined points in an average Dukes game. - Washington State scored 76.1 and allowed 77.5. That works out to roughly 153.6 combined points in an average Cougars game.
Both figures are about 5 points above 148.5. If either team's style carries over from last season, the Over is the more natural result.
Two more data points cut the same way:
- Duquesne went 12-5 last season when it scored more than 77.5 points. A Dukes team that reaches that mark at home puts real pressure on this total. - Washington State went 10-7 when it allowed fewer than 78.3 points. That record suggests the Cougars' best outcomes came in somewhat lower-scoring games. It also suggests WSU frequently allowed more than that, which would push the total up.
Other risks:
- Game script. Duquesne is favored by 3.5 to 4.5. If Washington State trails late, intentional fouling and free throws can add points quickly to a game that was tracking Under. - Variance. College basketball totals carry wide outcome ranges. A few made threes or an overtime period can override any pre-game reasoning. Without a model probability, we cannot say how often this pick wins. Treat it as an unquantified lean, not an edge. - Market disagreement. The 148.5 quote may be the outlier rather than the 144.5 quote. If sharper pricing moves toward 148.5 or higher, our cushion argument weakens.
Our assessment: this is a modest, low-information pick based on price position, with last season's scoring data pointing the other way. It is recorded on our ledger with its full context, including the absence of model support, and it will be graded there win or lose.
21+ only. Treat every prediction as entertainment, set limits in advance, and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.