North Alabama (2-1) visits Miami (2-1) at the Watsco Center on Friday, November 13, 2026, with tip at 5 p.m. ET on ACC Network. It is the first meeting in the history of the two programs, and a homecoming for UNA head coach Tony Pujol. Miami has won its last two games by a combined 64 points. North Alabama arrives off an 81-72 loss at Oklahoma.
The call
Under 148.5 (total), North Alabama @ Miami.
For this pick to win, the two teams must combine for 148 points or fewer. A final of 149 or more loses.
One point on the number itself. The 148.5 figure matches an earlier posted line, which listed Miami -33.5. The market has since moved up: FanDuel shows 152.5 with Miami -34.5, and BetMGM shows 151.5. Our pick of record is 148.5. That is 3 to 4 points less room than the current market offers. Anyone evaluating this call should judge it at 148.5, and our ledger will grade it there.
The matchup
Miami's totals so far. The Hurricanes have played three games. The combined scores were:
- Wagner, 83-57: 140 total - North Florida, 89-51: 140 total - Florida (top-ranked), 77-67 loss: 144 total
All three finished below 148.5. Miami has averaged 79.7 points scored and 61.7 allowed. Its blowouts have not produced high totals, because the opponent's side of the scoreboard stayed in the 50s.
Rebounding. Miami averages 45.7 rebounds per game, which ranks 27th in the NCAA. Strong defensive rebounding limits second-chance points. That keeps the trailing team's scoring down, which matters for the under in a lopsided game.
Personnel.
- Sophomore Shelton Henderson leads Miami at 13.3 points per game. - Junior Malik Reneau, an All-ACC selection, adds 11.0. - 6-11 junior center Somto Cyril scores 10.7 and anchors the interior.
No player is carrying an outsized share of the scoring. We found no confirmed injury or lineup news for either team.
North Alabama. Last season the Lions scored 69.4 points per game, 319th nationally, and allowed 77.6, 284th. That is prior-season data and rosters change, so it is context rather than proof. This season's loss at Oklahoma finished 81-72, a combined 153. That is above our number.
Game script. A 33.5 to 34.5-point spread signals an expected mismatch. In Miami's two comparable wins this season, the reserves did not push the total past 140. If the pattern holds, the under has a reasonable path.
The case against
The market disagrees. Two major books have the total at 151.5 and 152.5. The consensus expects more scoring than our 148.5. At that number, the pick has less margin than a current under would.
Miami's offense is capable of more. The Hurricanes scored 89 against North Florida. A similar output, with North Alabama reaching 60, produces 149 and a loss.
North Alabama can score. The Lions put up 72 at Oklahoma, a road game against a power-conference opponent, and that game totaled 153. If UNA scores into the 60s or 70s, Miami needs only a modest night to push this over.
Late-game noise. A late-game sequence of free throws, transition baskets or bench three-pointers can add 8 to 10 points in the final minutes, when the outcome is no longer in doubt. That variance runs against an under at a number this close to the market.
Small samples. Three games is a thin record for either team. Miami's 140, 140 and 144 are consistent, but they come from early-season opponents, and they do not guarantee anything about Friday.
This is a reasoned call with clear risk, not a certainty. The result will be recorded on our public ledger either way.
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