Loyola Marymount visits Trojan Arena tonight, November 10, 2026, for the return leg of a home-and-home with Troy. Tip-off is 7:00 pm ET on ESPN+. Our pick is Under 148.5.
The Lions are coming off a 78-66 home win over Queens on Nov. 4. They also hosted Lincoln on Nov. 6, but we could not confirm that result. Troy, the two-time defending Sun Belt champion, is 0-2. The Trojans lost 71-60 at home to UMass and 91-68 at Florida State. Last season LMU beat Troy 74-63 at home, so the Trojans are playing to even the series.
One clarification first. This is a college basketball game, so there are no pitchers or park factors to cite. The analysis below uses the team, shooting and scoring data we could verify.
The number
The pick is Under 148.5. Our model engine did not return data for this game:
- Model probability: n/a - Market-implied probability: n/a - Edge: None - Model confidence: None
We will not estimate or reconstruct these figures. This pick has no quantified model edge behind it, and readers should weigh it accordingly. It will be recorded on our public ledger like every other pick, and graded the same way.
The market context matters. The current listing we found, at BetMGM, has the total at 144.5, Over -115, Under -105, with LMU favored by 1.5. That is 4 points lower than our 148.5 line. If 144.5 is the prevailing number, then Under 148.5 has 4 points of cushion against the market's central estimate. We cannot confirm when or where 148.5 was available. Anyone comparing numbers should note the gap rather than assume either line is current.
Why the model leans this way
Without engine output, this case rests on the verified game record. Here are the totals from each team's recent results:
| Game | Score | Combined | |---|---|---| | LMU vs. Queens (Nov. 4) | 78-66 | 144 | | UMass at Troy | 71-60 | 131 | | Troy at Florida State | 91-68 | 159 | | Troy at LMU (last season) | 74-63 | 137 |
Three of these four totals land under 148.5. Two of them land under 144.5.
Troy's shooting is the core of the Under case. Against UMass, the Trojans shot 34.4% from the field (22-of-64) and 25.0% from three (7-of-28). UMass then went on a 32-1 run that bridged halftime. Troy produced a single point over that stretch, and the game still finished at 131.
Troy's lineup is still taking shape. Two Trojans made their collegiate debuts at Florida State, including Romain Valakou. In that game the scoring was spread thin. Caden Diggs and Sam Walters led with 11 points each, and Jacoi Hutchinson added eight points, six assists and five rebounds. No Troy player has yet shown he can carry a high-scoring night.
The last meeting was low-scoring. Last season's game between these teams totaled 137, which is 11.5 points below tonight's line. Rosters turn over, so this is context rather than evidence of a repeatable pattern.
LMU's one confirmed result came in under the line. The 78-66 win over Queens totaled 144, 4.5 points below 148.5.
The case against
This pick can lose in several realistic ways.
Troy has already played a game that cleared this line. The Florida State loss totaled 159, which is 10.5 points over 148.5. Florida State outrebounded Troy 25-11 in that game. If LMU wins the glass in a similar way, second-chance points could push the total up quickly. A lopsided margin also tends to bring a loose final stretch with late scoring.
Troy's shooting may improve. A 25.0% three-point night on 28 attempts is a small, unstable sample. Troy is the two-time defending conference champion, so some recovery toward normal shooting is a reasonable expectation. If Troy makes 10 or 11 threes instead of 7, the scoring math changes fast.
Early-season data is thin. We have one confirmed LMU result, and the Lincoln score is unknown. Troy has two games, against opponents of very different quality. New players are still learning the system. Any of this can swing pace and efficiency.
The game could stay close late. The market spread is only 1.5 points. A one-possession game in the final minutes can bring intentional fouls and free throws, which can add 6 to 10 points in the last two minutes regardless of how the first 38 went.
Normal variance applies. College basketball totals routinely land 10 or more points away from the posted number. Without a model probability, we cannot put a precise figure on how often this pick fails. A fair working assumption is that a total near the market number lands on either side with roughly comparable frequency. Treat the 4-point gap between 148.5 and 144.5 as a modest cushion, not a margin of safety.
The pick is Under 148.5, with no published model edge, recorded in full on our ledger.
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