No. 2 Duke (2-1) hosts SIU-Edwardsville (2-2) of the Ohio Valley Conference tonight, November 13, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET on the CW from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. Duke arrives off its first loss, 79-73 to Michigan State in the State Farm Champions Classic at the United Center. SIUE arrives off its second straight loss, 96-58 at Missouri on Nov. 9.
The call
Under 147.5 (total). The line is 147.5, so the pick wins if the two teams combine for 147 points or fewer. It loses at 148 or more. There is no push at a half-point line.
For this to land, the game needs to be played closer to the defensive profiles both programs carried last season than to the scoring totals of Duke's two home openers. In practice, that means SIUE scoring in the 50s or low 60s and Duke not running well past 85.
The matchup
Defense on both sides. Last season Duke allowed 63.6 points per game, fourth-best nationally. SIUE allowed 64.7, eighth-best. Two top-10 scoring defenses from a year ago meet tonight. Rosters change from year to year, so those figures describe programs, not this exact game, but they are the most complete defensive data available for both sides.
SIUE's offense. The Cougars scored 71 points per game last season, 287th nationally. At Missouri on Nov. 9 they scored 58. A limited offense facing a No. 2-ranked opponent on the road is the core of the Under case. Duke's +11.0 average rebounding margin last season points the same way: fewer second chances for SIUE.
Duke's form. Duke scored 81.6 points per game last season, 51st nationally. This season it beat Army and Coastal Carolina at home, the latter 113-52. Against Michigan State, the offense stalled at 73 points. Duke never led, committed 13 turnovers that produced 16 Michigan State points, and was outscored 34-26 in the paint. John Blackwell led Duke with 17.
Personnel. The only health note concerns Patrick Ngongba. The 6-foot-11 center said after the Michigan State game that he has been playing through an illness, and coach Jon Scheyer said he "didn't have his best stuff by any means." Ngongba still leads Duke with 16.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. We found no other injury or lineup news for either team.
Schedule. Duke's next three opponents are Illinois, UConn and Florida, all of whom sit with Duke in the top four of this week's AP Top 25. A comfortable lead tonight could mean extended minutes for reserves late, which often slows scoring in the second half.
The case against
The plain risk is Duke's ceiling. In the 113-52 win over Coastal Carolina, the two teams combined for 165 points, and Duke alone came within 34.5 of tonight's line. If Duke is set on a bounce-back statement at home, it can push this total over largely by itself.
SIUE's most recent game also cuts against the pick. Missouri and SIUE combined for 154, above 147.5, and SIUE allowed 96. That defense was eighth-best last season, but it has not looked like it in the most recent sample.
The Michigan State game totaled 152, also above the line. All three of Duke's and SIUE's most recent results that we can verify finished over 147.5.
Other paths to a loss: Duke turnovers turning into transition points for SIUE, a late foul-heavy stretch, or bench units playing loose defense in a decided game. Ngongba's illness is a two-sided variable. A limited Ngongba could lower Duke's interior scoring, but it could also weaken Duke's rebounding and rim protection.
This is a genuine risk call, not a sure thing, and it can lose. Every result, win or loss, is recorded on our public ledger.
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