Ohio State visits UConn on Friday, November 13, at 7:30 p.m. ET at PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, Conn., with the game airing on TNT. It is one of the first marquee nonconference games of the 2026-27 season: Big East against Big Ten, a 3-0 home team against a visitor that has won two straight since an opening loss. The market lists UConn as an 11.5-point favorite, with a moneyline of UConn -800 and Ohio State +550. Our pick is the Under at 145.5.
The call
Selection: Under 145.5 (game total).
For the pick to win, the two teams must combine for 145 points or fewer. A final total of 146 or more loses. Because the line ends in .5, there is no push.
One pricing note for transparency. The researched market total for this game is 146.5, one point above the 145.5 we are recording. Our ledger grades the pick at 145.5. At 146.5, a final total of exactly 146 would grade differently, so readers comparing prices should treat that one-point gap as material and not cosmetic.
In practical terms, the Under needs a game that does not turn into a sustained track meet. An average of roughly 72 points per team or fewer clears the number.
The matchup
UConn. The Huskies are 3-0, most recently beating Wagner 83-41 on Monday. That score shows a defense capable of suppressing a weaker opponent, though Wagner is a different level of competition from Ohio State. The more relevant news from that game is personnel. Forward Nik Khamenia is expected to miss several weeks after needing surgery on his left foot. That changes UConn's frontcourt rotation for Friday, with fewer bodies available and new combinations that have had little time together. Rotations in transition can play slower and more deliberately, but that is a tendency, not a certainty.
Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened with a loss to BYU, then beat Youngstown State and Marshall. Ohio State scored 83 points against BYU in that opener despite losing, so this offense has already shown it can produce at a high level against a quality opponent. We found no confirmed injury news for the Buckeyes.
Schedule. UConn's slate stays demanding, with a trip to Arizona on November 18. Friday is also a high-profile spot on national television against a Big Ten opponent, so focus should not be an issue for either side.
Context, kept in proportion. On Thursday night, the schools' women's teams met, and No. 4 UConn beat No. 17 Ohio State 87-55 behind a career-high seven 3-pointers and 25 points from Sarah Strong. That is a separate program with separate personnel and tells us nothing direct about Friday's total. We note it only because it is part of the weekend's storyline.
The case against
The risks are concrete.
- Ohio State's offense. 83 points against BYU is a real data point. If the Buckeyes reach the low 70s or higher, the Under depends heavily on UConn staying below the same range. - Recent result trend. Ohio State's last road game went Over the total. One game is a small sample, but it does not support the pick. - A blowout script. With UConn favored by 11.5, a lopsided game is possible. UConn scored 83 against Wagner, and a dominant home performance with efficient offense could push the total up on its own, especially if the final minutes include free throws and fast possessions. - Frontcourt uncertainty cuts both ways. Khamenia's absence could slow UConn down, or it could open the interior for Ohio State and lead to easier scoring. - The number itself. The pick sits at 145.5, one point below the 146.5 market total in our research. A final of exactly 146 loses at our number. - Early-season variance. Three games per team is a thin sample. Shooting variance in November can swing a total by 10 points or more in either direction.
This is one pick with a real chance of losing, and it will be recorded on our public ledger either way.
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