No. 1 Florida (3-0) hosts Merrimack (1-2) tonight, November 13, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network. This is the third meeting between the programs in four seasons. The market has Florida at -37.5 on the spread, with a moneyline of -10000 on the Gators and +3300 on the Warriors. Our pick is on the total.
The call
Selection: Under 143.5.
For this pick to win, the two teams must combine for 143 points or fewer. The math is easiest to see through the spread. If Florida covers 37.5 exactly, a 90-52 final adds up to 142. To push past 143.5, the game needs either a Florida scoring night in the mid-90s or better, or a Merrimack offense that produces well above its usual output against a top-ranked opponent.
The reference point is last season's meeting: Florida 80, Merrimack 45, a combined 125 points. That is 18.5 points under tonight's number. The pick does not require a repeat of that game. It requires the game to look broadly similar: Florida in control, Merrimack held in the 40s or 50s, and a second half that loses urgency once the result is settled.
The matchup
Florida. The Gators are 3-0, most recently winning 81-72 at rival Florida State. That game added up to 153 points, which shows Florida can be part of a high total. It also revealed a known weakness. Florida had trouble against Florida State's zone, and attacking zones has been a recurring problem for the Gators in recent seasons. Florida is also still without CJ Ingram, who has missed all three games with a back injury. Schedule is a factor too: after tonight, Florida travels to Las Vegas to face Notre Dame in the Players Era tournament. A large lead tonight would likely mean extended bench minutes and little reason to push the pace late.
Merrimack. The Warriors earned their first win in their last outing, 73-60 over Albany, a combined 133. Their leading scorer is AJ Lesburt Jr., a transfer from Brown averaging 14 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. Freshman Ayden Johnson scored a season-high 13 against Albany and went 2-for-4 from three. The key returners are Todd Brogna, a 6'7" forward, and Tye Dorset, a 6'3" guard. Merrimack lists no known injuries.
The glass. Last season Merrimack ranked 363rd nationally in rebounding, and Florida ranked first. That gap matters for the total in two ways. Florida's offensive rebounds extend its own possessions, which works toward the over. Merrimack's limited second chances cap its own scoring, which works toward the under. The pick depends on the second effect outweighing the first, as it did in last season's 45-point Merrimack output.
For context, Merrimack went on to win the MAAC regular-season title after last season's loss in Gainesville. This is a competent program. Even so, its 45-point showing against a much larger opponent reflects a pattern this pick expects to continue.
The case against
The clearest risk is a Florida blowout that runs up the score. A 37.5-point spread already implies a large Florida total. If the Gators shoot efficiently and turn Merrimack misses into transition chances, a final like 98-50 (148) clears the line without anything unusual happening.
Second, Merrimack's offense may be better than last season's 45. Lesburt is a new scoring option, and Johnson's 2-for-4 night from three shows the Warriors can find perimeter offense. If Merrimack scores in the 60s, Florida needs only the low 80s to put the over in play.
Third, Florida's bench minutes. Reserves tend to play loosely, and late-game fouling and free throws can add points to a decided game.
Finally, the Florida State game reached 153. If Florida's offensive rebounding produces a long run of second-chance points, the total can climb fast. Any of these paths beats the pick. We are taking a clear position, and it can lose.
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