The card lists 125 football games across three boards: 58 college, 51 FCS and 16 NFL. Our research pass confirmed exactly one kickoff: Atlanta at New Orleans, Week 4 Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET. Every other listed game is unverified for today, so we treat it as unconfirmed rather than fill gaps with guesses.
Our posted calls today are all NBA, settled on the public tamper-evident ledger:
- Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 (Memphis at Atlanta) - Phoenix Suns +3.5 (Phoenix at Detroit) - Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 (New York at Philadelphia) - Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (Minnesota at Milwaukee) - Sacramento Kings +5.5 (Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento)
Four of the five take points. That is an observation about today's sheet, not a claim of edge. Every one settles publicly, win or lose, and the record includes the losses.
We have posted no football picks today, and we publish no model probability, market number or edge figure for any football game below.
College Football
The largest board, at 58 listed games, is also the least verified. Our research found no confirmed college kickoffs for this date. Until a game is confirmed, it gets no pick.
The listed matchups with the most weight on paper are Texas at Oklahoma, Florida State at Louisville, Texas A&M at Missouri, Indiana at Nebraska, Iowa State at BYU, South Carolina at Florida and Iowa at Washington. The Group of Five portion includes South Florida at UTSA, Tulane at Army, Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State and Sam Houston at Liberty.
For these games, a sharp college model weighs:
- Roster continuity and quarterback stability. These move college numbers more than anything else. - Travel and venue effects. The size of home advantage varies widely from one stadium to the next. - Pace. It drives total plays and therefore variance. - Talent gaps. Mismatches can make margins hard to project, especially late in games.
The model does not substitute reputation for data. We have no game-level stats for this board today, and we cite none.
FCS
The FCS board lists 51 games, and our research confirmed none of them for today. Listed matchups include:
- Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois at South Dakota, Youngstown State at Indiana State. - Southern Conference: Samford at Chattanooga, East Tennessee State at The Citadel, Wofford at Elon. - Ivy League: Harvard at Cornell, Dartmouth at Yale.
FCS modeling carries wider uncertainty than any other football board. The reasons are thinner data, larger week-to-week roster variance and less public injury reporting. In practice, that means fewer qualifying numbers and wider error bars on the ones that do qualify. We have no FCS picks posted.
NFL
The NFL board lists 16 games, but only one is confirmed for tonight: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Caesars Superdome, ESPN. Both teams are 1-2. New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite, and the total is 47.5.
Atlanta. The Falcons lost Week 1 to Pittsburgh with Cooper Rush at quarterback, then lost 34-3 to Carolina in Week 2. Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3 for a win over Green Bay, going 18 of 25 for 256 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Tonight is his second start of the season after tearing his ACL last November.
In that Green Bay game, Bijan Robinson carried 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns. The season rankings support that profile:
- 2nd in rushing offense, at 173.0 yards per game - 1st in rushing defense, allowing 47.7 yards per game
Atlanta is also 4-0 on Monday Night Football since 2024, including two road games. A sample of four is context, not a predictive input.
New Orleans. Tyler Shough has completed 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Chris Olave has cleared 70 receiving yards in every game, with 182, 86 and 107. The concerns are plain. The Saints' starting running back is on injured reserve, and they committed four turnovers in their last game alone.
Injuries.
- Atlanta: Divine Deablo (hamstring), Samson Ebukam (hamstring) and Yasir Abdullah (illness) are questionable. A.J. Terrell (groin) is on injured reserve. - New Orleans: Pete Werner (neck) and Noah Fant (abdomen) are questionable.
What the model weighs here. First, how much of Atlanta's rushing profile is durable and how much comes from one 194-yard game. Second, Penix's efficiency over one start, which is a small sample. Third, how much turnover regression to expect from New Orleans. Fourth, whether Terrell's absence changes the matchup against Olave. A 1.5-point spread sits close to a coin flip, and small inputs move it. We have not posted a pick on this game, and the ledger will reflect that.
The other 15 listed NFL games were not confirmed for today and receive no pick.
21+ only. Predictions carry real risk of loss; set limits, and if play stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.