A three-pick slate settled on 2026-08-25, and the day closed 2 correct, 1 missed. The two wins came from one MLB call and one WNBA spread; the miss came on the second WNBA spread, and it was not close. Below is the record as it stands on the ledger, walked line by line.
The board
MLB: Washington ML, COL @ WSH. The model carried Washington at 85% to win outright. The result was a WIN. Of the three calls, this was the one the model expressed with the most conviction, and it held.
WNBA: Connecticut Sun +4.5, Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun. The pick took the Sun with the points. Connecticut covered, closing +6 against the number. Result: WIN.
WNBA: Phoenix Mercury +4, Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury. The pick took the Mercury with the points. The margin closed at -10 against the number, a clear miss. Result: LOSS. There is no reframing here: the number was wrong by a wide margin, and the ledger records it as such.
What the model saw
Only the MLB call carries a published model probability, so it is the only line where a model-versus-market read is honest to state. The model priced Washington at 85% to win. That is a firm read, and the outcome agreed. We do not attach a probability to either WNBA spread above, so we will not manufacture one after the fact; both are logged as pick and result, nothing more.
The honest summary of the day: one high-confidence call resolved as expected, one spread landed, and one spread missed by double digits. A 2-1 day is a positive day, but the single loss was not a near thing, and pretending otherwise would misrepresent the record. Uncertainty is real on every line, and the Mercury pick is a plain reminder that a stated edge does not guarantee an outcome.
Across the slate, the reads that resolved in our favor did not offset the size of the one that did not. We record the day as it happened.
Every call above, the lines, the models where stated, and the final results, sits on our public, tamper-evident ledger. Verify each one yourself.
21+. Informational only. 1-800-GAMBLER.