The slate on 2026-08-14 was short and clear: two MLB predictions, both favorites the model rated near or above 80 percent. Both went the other way. The day closes 0 correct and 2 missed, and there is no useful way to dress that up. What follows is the record as it settled, with each line available for inspection on the public ledger.
The board
Two picks, two losses.
- ATL ML in ARI @ ATL. The model assigned Atlanta 81 percent. Final: 2-0 Arizona. Atlanta was shut out at home, and the pick did not cash. - SF ML in COL @ SF. The model assigned San Francisco 80 percent. Final: 5-2 Colorado. San Francisco lost at home, and the pick did not cash.
No line was recorded for either game, so the read here rests on the model probabilities rather than a price-based edge. Both numbers were high. Both were wrong.
What the model saw
The model priced Atlanta at 81 percent and San Francisco at 80 percent, two of the more confident reads it will produce in a single session. Confidence at that level is not certainty. An 81 percent call is still expected to miss roughly one time in five, and an 80 percent call roughly one time in five as well. On this date, both landed in that minority at once.
That outcome is uncomfortable but not, on its own, evidence that the reads were mispriced. Two high-probability calls failing on the same day is within the range of ordinary variance. It is also a plain reminder that stacking favorites does not insulate a day from a shutout in Atlanta or a three-run loss in San Francisco. The honest accounting is this: the model was confident, the games did not cooperate, and we do not know from two results alone whether the estimates were too high. We will let the longer sample speak to that rather than over-read a single date.
What we can say precisely is that the model expected both home favorites to win, both lost, and the tally reflects it: 0 for 2.
A losing day is part of the record, and it belongs on the ledger exactly as the winning ones do. Every line above, the teams, the model percentages, and the final scores, is posted on the public, tamper-evident ledger for you to verify against these results.
21+. Informational only. 1-800-GAMBLER.