The slate on 2026-08-13 was narrow and the result was clear: 0 correct, 2 missed. The day rested on a single WNBA number, the Connecticut Sun at +10.5 against the Atlanta Dream, and that number did not hold. The final margin came in at 35, well past the cushion. There is no softer way to record it, and no attempt to.
The board
Both entries pointed at the same side of the same game.
- WNBA, Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun: Connecticut Sun +10.5. Result: LOSS. Final margin 35. - WNBA, Connecticut Sun +10.5: the same position, logged a second time. Result: LOSS. Final margin 35.
The +10.5 line asked Connecticut to stay within 10.5 points. They finished 35 back. That is a 24.5-point overshoot of the number, a miss by any measure and one that leaves no room for interpretation.
What the model saw
Honesty requires a plain admission here: no model probability was attached to either entry. Both carry a market line of 10.5 and a model figure of n/a. With no percentage on the ledger, there is no model-versus-market edge to reconstruct, and it would be improper to invent one after the fact.
What we can say is limited and true. The pick took the underdog side at +10.5, a number the market set. The game moved decisively against that side, and the 35-point result was not a close call that fell wrong. It was a wide gap. When a position lands 24.5 points outside its cushion, the outcome is not noise around a fair read, it is simply a miss, and we log it as one.
The uncertainty on a day like this is worth stating rather than hiding. A single game, doubled on the sheet, means the day's variance sits entirely on one result. That is a thin base, and thin bases produce lopsided days in both directions. This one broke against us.
Every line above is settled and timestamped. The two Connecticut +10.5 entries, the 10.5 line, and the 35-point final are all posted to our public, tamper-evident ledger, where you can check each figure against what was written before the game and confirm the 0-2 tally for yourself.
21+. Informational only. 1-800-GAMBLER.