Tip-off is 7:00 p.m. Central at the United Center. The Phoenix Suns (0-1 in preseason) visit the Chicago Bulls (0-0), and Tiago Splitter coaches his first game as Chicago's head coach. Phoenix already has one exhibition behind it: a 109-107 road loss to the Detroit Pistons on Oct. 5 after building a 19-point first-half lead. Chicago is playing its opener, the first of a slate that runs from tonight through an Oct. 16 game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Our pick is Chicago Bulls +3.5. Before making the case, here is what we do and do not have.
The number
- Model probability: n/a - Market-implied probability: n/a - Edge: none recorded - Model confidence: none recorded
Our model engine produced no data for this game. That is common in preseason, when rotations, minutes and lineups are unknown. We also could not confirm a posted spread or starting lineups from public sources. The +3.5 line is the one attached to our pick, and we cannot independently verify that it matches any market price.
Because there is no quantified edge, this pick is not supported by a model-measured advantage. It rests on the situational factors below, and it should be weighed with that limitation in mind. The pick will be logged on our public ledger and graded like every other entry.
Why the model leans this way
With no engine output, there are no totals, projected scores or model-derived ratings to cite. The case comes from the researched context.
1. Phoenix's opener showed specific weaknesses. The Suns committed 22 turnovers in the second half in Detroit, and that stretch turned a 19-point lead into a 2-point loss. Free-throw shooting was also a problem: Ighadaro, Fleming, Koa Peat and Khaman Maluach went a combined 1-for-10 from the line. Those four players are young or developmental. In preseason they typically play large second-half minutes, which is when Phoenix struggled most.
2. The +3.5 points cover the likely shape of a preseason game. Exhibition games often swing late, when deep reserves are on the floor. Phoenix's last game was decided by 2 points. A 3.5-point cushion means Chicago can lose a close game and the pick still wins. Preseason outcomes depend heavily on second- and third-unit play, so margins can stay tight even when the starters are unevenly matched.
3. Home floor and a new coach. This is Chicago's home opener of the exhibition schedule and Splitter's debut. The researched context gives no information on his rotation plans, so we do not assume anything specific. The general point is narrow: Chicago plays at home, and every one of its available players is competing for minutes under a new staff.
4. Phoenix brings roster churn. The Suns traded up for Koa Peat in the 2026 Draft, acquired Miles Bridges from Charlotte, and re-signed Collin Gillespie, Mark Williams and Jordan Goodwin. Integrating new pieces is ongoing work. The second-half turnovers in Detroit fit a team that is still building cohesion, although one game is a small sample.
The case against
These points deserve equal weight.
Phoenix's starters will play longer. Head coach Jordan Ott said, "We'll extend those minutes a little bit more into the third (quarter)." More starter minutes give Phoenix more time with its strongest units. That is when the Suns built their 19-point lead in Detroit. If that pattern holds and the lead does not erode, the Suns can win by more than 3.5.
Chicago is shorthanded in the frontcourt. Nicolas Claxton is out with a hamstring injury, and Zach Collins is a game-time decision with a toe injury. If Collins also sits, Chicago loses two big men. That could matter against Mark Williams and a Phoenix frontcourt that includes Maluach.
Phoenix has played once; Chicago has not. The Suns have one game of live reps and film. The Bulls are playing their first game under a new head coach. Early-preseason rust and unsettled rotations can produce lopsided stretches.
The Suns' flaws may correct quickly. Twenty-two second-half turnovers and 1-for-10 free-throw shooting are extreme figures. Both are likely to improve. If Phoenix simply plays a cleaner second half, its first-half form in Detroit would point toward a comfortable margin.
Preseason variance is large, and our model has no read on this game. Minutes limits, unannounced rest decisions and deep-bench play can swamp any pre-game read. Without a model probability, we cannot say how often this pick should win. An honest framing is that it sits near a coin flip with wide uncertainty, and a Phoenix win by 4 or more points is well within the normal range of outcomes.
The pick is Bulls +3.5. It is a low-information preseason call with no measured edge, and we are presenting it that way.
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