The Colorado Rockies (50-80) travel to Nationals Park on Monday, August 24, 2026, to open a four-game set with the Washington Nationals (61-71), first pitch 6:45 p.m. ET. Both clubs arrive cold — the two teams combined to lose 10 straight heading into this series — but the pitching matchup is lopsided. Washington sends Cade Cavalli (11-5, 3.22 ERA); Colorado counters with Ryan Feltner (5-7, 5.97 ERA). This is the opener, and the Nationals already took two of three from the Rockies at Coors Field just over a month ago.
The number
Our model prices Washington to win at 85%. The market-implied probability sits at 72%. That is an edge of 13 points in our favor. Model confidence is not published for this game, and no projected final score is available, so we anchor the case to the inputs we can verify: starting pitching, recent form, and roster status. Treat the 85% as a probability, not a certainty — roughly 15 times in 100, by our own read, this game goes the other way.
Why the model leans this way
The strongest input is Cavalli's recent work. He has not allowed a run across his last two starts, giving up four hits with 21 strikeouts and three walks in 14 innings. Zoom out and the trend holds: eight consecutive quality starts, 13 runs (11 earned) over 50 innings, a 1.98 ERA in that stretch. His most recent outing was Thursday — six scoreless innings against Texas on three hits. That is a pitcher operating with command, missing bats, and limiting traffic.
The opposing arm points the same direction. Feltner carries a 5.97 season ERA and was tagged for seven runs in five innings by the Dodgers at Coors Field last time out. A rotation edge of this size — a sub-2.00 ERA over two months against a starter allowing nearly six earned per nine — is the core of the model's lean, and it is amplified by moving Feltner from Coors to a more neutral park in Washington.
Colorado's roster situation adds modest support. Ezequiel Tovar recently missed a game after tweaking his left wrist on a diving play, and Hunter Goodman was only just activated from the injured list following a left shoulder strain. Neither is confirmed out for Monday, but both introduce lineup uncertainty against a starter who is presently difficult to square up. The earlier series result — Washington winning two of three in Colorado — is a small, consistent data point rather than a driver.
The case against
The honest risks here are real, and they cluster in two places.
First, Washington's bullpen. Over a recent four-game series with Philadelphia, Nationals relievers surrendered 15 combined runs in the ninth inning. A dominant Cavalli start can be undone if the game reaches the back end with a one- or two-run margin. The most common path to a Colorado win is not out-pitching Cavalli — it is a late-inning collapse after he departs. That is a specific, documented vulnerability, not a hypothetical.
Second, ordinary variance and the bat. Washington was shut out 5-0 by Texas in its most recent game, a reminder that this offense can go quiet. If the Nationals fail to build a cushion and Feltner steals five decent innings — which even a struggling starter does with some regularity — the game tightens and the bullpen exposure grows. Both teams entering on losing streaks cuts in a neutral direction: cold form is not a lineup, and momentum does not throw pitches, but it does raise the chance either offense sputters.
A baseball moneyline favorite at roughly this price loses more often than casual reading of the ERAs suggests. The market's 72% is not naive; it already accounts for Feltner's struggles and Cavalli's form. Our 13-point edge rests on the view that the market has slightly under-weighted the starting-pitching gap and Colorado's lineup questions. If Goodman and Tovar both play and produce, and Washington's ninth inning wobbles again, the edge narrows quickly. We hold the pick, but with clear eyes about how it fails.
On balance, the pitching matchup and roster context support Washington at 85% against a market number of 72%. The path to a loss runs through the Nationals' bullpen and a quiet home lineup — outcomes we account for in the 15% we assign to Colorado.
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